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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.