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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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